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Market research firm Maravedis has forecast that despite a strong challenge from LTE, WiMAX will achieve a level of success by leveraging the foothold it gained by being first into the 4G market.
"Our research shows that a healthy ecosystem is key for WiMAX's survival," said Bilel Bouraoui, Senior Analyst and co-author of the report. More than 22 vendors shipped a total of 2.2 million WiMAX CPEs in 2008.
The report, "WiMAX and Broadband Wireless Access Equipment Market Analysis, Trends and Forecasts, 2009-2014," predicts an accumulated 75 million WiMAX subscribers by the end of 2014.
The firm's forecasts have been revised to reflect the economic slowdown and the progress made by the LTE camp, according to Adlane Fellah, Maravedis CEO and co-author of the report.
The silicon market faced increasing competition with more than six players enjoying market shares of more than 7% each. Consolidations, mergers and exits in the device and silicon vendor communities will reduce competition in 2009 if volumes don't ramp up fast enough, said Bilel.
The report confirms that both WiMAX and LTE are converging upon 4G service capabilities. LTE's primary market, 3G operators, will be unlikely to deploy LTE sooner than 2012.
"While LTE appears to have the decisive volume advantage, the lag between 3G evolution and the next generation mobile network will greatly benefit WiMAX in the near term," said Senior Analyst Robert Syputa.
Other findings include:
- Korean and Taiwanese ODMs accounted for 60% of CPEs shipped in 2008.
- The 802.16e-2005 share of new WiMAX subscribers will peak in 2012 and be dominated by mobile devices with embedded wireless modems.
- Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung were the leaders in BWA and WiMAX combined equipment markets.
- The WiMAX equipment market, which includes active WiMAX subscribers, will reach an annual US$4 billion in 2014, from over 2US$ billion at the end of 2008.
- Proprietary and fixed WiMAX equipment markets will continue to grow organically to meet the needs of WISPs and vertical segments.
- Service revenues generated by broadband wireless services will reach US$15 billion in 2014.
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